The Nuke-Asian Partners: India and Japan
- Aslesha Dhillon
- Nov 14, 2016
- 4 min read
India and Japan signed a landmark deal on civil nuclear cooperation on 11 November, in Tokyo. This deal will strengthen the economic and security ties of Asia’s second and third largest economies in the presence of an assertive China. This deal clearly demonstrates a strong strategic and geo-economic partnership of Japan and India.
From an economic standpoint, this deal is critical for India’s continued economic growth and Japan’s nuclear industry. This deal enables Japan to export nuclear technology to India. In 2013, India replaced Japan as the world’s third-largest importer of crude oil. Given the state of technology, nuclear energy will be pivotal for India to reduce its carbon emissions and achieve its Paris Agreement commitments. Specifically, because solar and wind cannot provide base-load power and nuclear is the only carbon-free way to address the energy deficits. India has twenty-two nuclear power plants in operation, five under construction and twenty plants in planning stages. India aims to increase the share of atomic plants in their electricity mix from 3.5% to a quarter of its total electricity generation, by 2050.
India’s nuclear power market is estimated to be $150 billion and requires almost $1.5 trillion in infrastructure investment over the next decade. The Chairman of the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Akio Mimura stated that “this is generally expected to have a positive influence on Japanese companies.” In particular, this deal will benefit Japanese nuclear-component makes, i.e. Hitachi Ltd. and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. since their business prospects have shrunk after Japan’s reactor fleets were shut down for safety checks due to the 2011 Fukushima Disaster. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd., believes that India is one of the most significant markets for nuclear power plants in the world. It is also important to note that India has concluded several civil nuclear deals with a number of countries such as the US and France. But the EPR reactors India commissioned from companies US companies such as, Toshiba-Westinghouse and Areva use Japanese components that cannot be commissioned unless India has a full-fledged civil nuclear agreement with Japan. A case in point: the global leader in manufacturing the reactor vessel, a core component, is Japan Steel Works.
This deal is extremely significant with respect to the reservations of Japan, the only country that has been a victim of nuclear weapons, and for India’s efforts to secure energy diversification and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated that, “Today's signing of the agreement for cooperation in peaceful uses of nuclear energy marks a historic step in our engagement to build a clean energy partnership." Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzō Abe stated that, “It (the agreement) is in line with Japan's ambition to create a world without nuclear weapons.”
India is the first non-signatory of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) to be allowed to import nuclear technology from Japan. India did not sign the NPT because it found the treaty to be discriminatory and wanted to maintain a minimum nuclear deterrent. There was significant political resistance within Japan because of the 1945 atom bombing and the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011. Plutonium a by-product of generating electricity from radioactive uranium, can be used to build nuclear weapons. Japan has a caveat within the deal wherein if India conducts any nuclear tests, the deal will be nullified. The main concern raised by anti-nuclear groups about India is that there are no international safeguards to stop the military from repurposing plutonium as it is not a signatory of the NPT. However, if examined closely the deal will have no negative impact on the nonproliferation regime. India has a good non-proliferation record and has not performed any tests since 1998. India has already developed the minimum atomic bombs needed to deter Pakistan and China. Furthermore, the US Congress had overwhelmingly passed the US-India nuclear deal in both its houses, thereby showing confidence in India’s position on non-proliferation. In the current deal, India has committed to use uranium and the technology only for civilian purposes.
Nonproliferation issue aside, the Indo-Japan nuclear deal has significant strategic implications. India and Japan share concerns over China’s assertive presence and growing influence in the India-China border, South China Sea, East China Sea and Indian Ocean. India and China are scaling up their military operations along their shared border and China and Japan are clashing over the South China Sea Islands. The civil nuclear deal between Japan and India also proves to counterbalance China’s activities to maintain Asian power balance through the export of infrastructure. Namely, China’s exporting nuclear plants to Pakistan. The Indo-Pacific region is also increasingly concerned about the United States’ inward looking foreign policy expected under Donald Trump. In this light, the strengthening India-Japan relations will give the two countries an added strategic impulse to approach southeast Asian countries that are gradually seeking to modify their status with the major nuclear powers. Modi stated that “as countries with an inclusive outlook, we have agreed to cooperate closely to promote connectivity, infrastructure and capacity-building in the regions that occupy the inter-linked waters of the Indo-Pacific.”
The India-Japan civil nuclear cooperation agreement is definitely a positive development that will have significant geo-economic, nonproliferation and regional power-balance implications for the Indo-Pacific Region and Asia.
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