India and Pakistan's Water War Aggravated by Climate Change
- Aslesha Dhillon
- Dec 1, 2016
- 4 min read
First, let’s understand the importance of the Indus water treaty. For more than 50 years this treaty (mediated by the World Bank) was largely considered a success because it has survived the ongoing conflict between India and Pakistan specifically during wars and an environment of distrust. The survival of this treaty can be attributed to the fact that the two states avoided any muddled directives about water flows and deliveries, but instead simplified the allocation of the basin’s three large western rivers to Pakistan–which account for 80% of the water in the entire basin– and it’s three eastern rivers to India. As the water from the Indus basin flows downstream from India to Pakistan, revoking the treaty would give India the power to take control and stop the flow of the three large rivers into Pakistan if they create enough space to store the water through constructing large dams.
Second, the water source from the Indus basin is essential for energy and agriculture production in India and Pakistan. The river basin which is shared by the two countries is home to at least 300 million people. Pakistan is one of the most water-stressed countries in the world. According to the IMF, its per capita annual water availability is approximately 35,300 cubic feet which is the scarcity threshold. Ironically, the water intensity rate of Pakistan is one of the highest in the world, with agriculture consuming 90 percent of the country’s water resources. Thus, Pakistan in particular is extremely dependent on those three rivers. In some parts of the country, this water is the sole source for irrigation and human consumption, including the entire Sindh province. Thus, there would be catastrophic implications for Pakistan’s water security if India were to cut off or even merely reduce its access to the water in the Indus basin.
On the other hand, India that got the raw end of the deal by getting access to only 20 percent of the entire Indus Basin’s waters, clearly has good reason to be unhappy with the treaty. Also the provisions of the treaty significantly limit India’s ability to build hydro power plants in Kashmir. This is significant for India because it has its own severe water stress. Approximately 300 million people in India face water shortages and severe droughts have resulted in an alarming rate of farmer’s suicide. Also a staggering fact is that India is consuming more groundwater than any other country in the world. While all these facts suggest that India should revoke the treaty, this action would have broadly more negative ramifications than positive. India’s decision to cancel revoking the treaty could be because of the following reasons: first, this action will bring huge global condemnation and the moral high ground that India has over Pakistan will be lost and second, India could create a dangerous precedent within the subcontinent with the potential of China (an ally of Pakistan) trying something similar with India. Basically, I don’t think that revoking the treaty would be able to produce the desired result that India is hoping to get namely, Pakistani clampdowns on anti-India terrorism. On the contrary, Pakistan might tighten its embrace of such groups. The mere act of canceling the IWT- even if India fails to take steps to reduce water flows to Pakistan-would be treated in Pakistan as a major provocation, with fears that water cutoffs could follow, and thereby produce retaliations.
Third, climate change is causing the water supplies in the Indus Basin to have an uncertain future. Although, the predictions of the future water supplies in the Indus basin by climate models are disturbingly inconclusive for the short-term. Most agree that water flows will decline by the end of the century as glaciers in the Himalayas retreat. The Indus is in particular attuned to changes in the glacier runoff because approximately 40 percent of the river stream originates from glaciers in the higher areas of the western Himalayas. Also, it is estimated that the number of people living in the basin are expected to grow to 400 million in 2050 as compared to 300 million people today. Furthermore, the intensification and development of industrial agriculture will also create more pressure on the smaller farmers and ground water resources. Furthermore, according to NASA’s GRACE satellite, the aquifers in Pakistan and northern India are amongst the most stressed and increasingly declining in the world.
The two countries are witnessing an unprecedented event wherein the water resource is being held hostage in the larger conflict of India and Pakistan. While I think, India will not unilaterally revoke the treaty, there are high possibilities for them to renegotiate the terms of the treaty. This would actually be extremely important because it gives the two countries that share various resources geographically, an opportunity to accommodate issues of climate change and its increasing implication on the water resources of their region. But unfortunately the ongoing friction between India and Pakistan would broadly underlie any agreement or discussion on climate change and water.
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